Ready for Change
Ready for Change
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=144737
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
by Mosharraf Zaidi
Even after almost three years of news coverage like it has never received before, two presidents equally adept at creating headlines during visits to New York City, the diligent efforts of cold war analysts to brand it the most dangerous place on earth, and an ambassador that can outshine Madison Avenue’s best and brightest, Pakistan is still not the defining issue in the US election. Pakistanis should be thanking their lucky stars. Their luck, and the whole world’s, just got better.
If Pakistan was the primary talking point for this election, we would collectively suffer four more years of Bush’s “us-versus-them” world view. Instead, the free market decided to intervene. The tanking of the US and global economy is the best thing to happen to Pakistan (and the world) since Ali Ahmad Kurd. It has shifted the focus of the US election from whether Barack Obama is prepared to lead a nation at war with its enemies (however abstractly defined they may be), to whether John McCain is prepared to lead a nation at war with itself, its credit cards, and its greed. Obama would have had trouble winning the first argument. McCain however, simply cannot win the second. If David Axelrod (Obama’s chief strategist, and far and away the most brilliant political operative, ever) can continue the Zen magic for the last few days before the election, if Obama wins, America is about to be great again, and people all around the world, especially Pakistanis should be grateful.
Pakistanis have got all sorts of garments in a twist about Obama. This discomfort is not nascent South Asian racism (though that deserves a look of its own), it’s Pakistani territorial insecurity. Analysts and politicians in New Delhi and around the world can’t seem to understand it. But Obama can. That’s why when he visited Kabul he clearly identified South Asian regional stability as being central to Pakistan’s evolution into the vision of its founding fathers, and a stabilizing influence for Afghanistan and the rest of the world.
Did Obama promise to violate Pakistani space to pursue terrorists? Sure he did. And he was honest and idealistic enough to say so. McCain has repeatedly said that “we shouldn’t be telling the Pakistanis that we’re about to invade them”. When Obama says he will pursue Al Qaeda and the Taliban, it is easier to hope that he will hold his military to account for the kind of “collateral damage” that was all too easily tolerated and even encouraged by the soulless, money-making neo-con machine that gave lifelines to corporations and death to little Pakhtun babies.
Obama may pursue the dangerous path of hot pursuit in the short run, but his long game, if the evidence thus far is any indication, will be an intelligent one. This intelligence is predicated on Obama’s multicultural heritage, and his significant exposure to the world outside. Obama recognizes perhaps more than any other recent presidential candidate that most people around the world, whether they actually know it or not, worship the same ideals as the ones American founding fathers articulated in their original demands for freedom. While it is absolutely true that American reality has never quite lived up to American ideals, it is also true that on its worst days, the American Dream is still a lot closer to what the average human being wants in life, than what any other country, anywhere offers. Part of the genius of America is that it has labelled natural human idealism with a name all its own. The American Dream is not solely owned by Americans. This is a reality that Obama is much more at ease with than the farcical and Manchurian John McCain.
This intelligence and this worldview will help an Obama administration construct its Pakistan policy around three essential realities.
First, that no matter how shrill the rewrite of South Asian history, and how loud the bhangra remixes from Bollywood, Pakistan’s existence is the product of a regional and historical context that is not a figment of the imagination of Pakistanis, but complex economic, political, and social realities. Something a former community organizer is better capable of understanding than a Texas party animal (Bush), or a bitter fighter pilot (McCain).
Second, that no matter how imperfect and how embarrassing democracy is for Pakistanis, the rules of legitimacy have to apply to Pakistani government as rigorously as any other. Democracy is the only route out of the hole that Pakistan has dug for itself.
Finally, that while Pakistanis have been doing all the digging of the hole, the shovels for this excavation have been provided to Pakistan by its frivolous friends, among which the US stands tallest. They’ve provided Pakistan with too many hatchets and shovels, and not enough books and candles. The only way Pakistan will get out and stay out of the hole, is by not getting any more “help” (including IMF loans).
Many feel that this level of nuance in an American government is unthinkable. That is true only to the extent that the current realities of US politics are true. But Obama and Axelrod are altering not just the electoral map, they are changing the basic realities of US politics. If it comes to pass, Obama’s White House will be the first since at least Lyndon B. Johnson’s to be this unrestrainedly idealistic, and this unburdened by the stupidity of dumb people, the arrogance of rich people, and the blood lust of contractors and corporations. In essence, this is what US politics had become since the advent of the 24 hour news cycle and the consequential emergence of a political culture that was more concerned with stooping to the level of the dumbest and most idiotic voter, rather than raising the consciousness of a nation. George W Bush took this political paradigm to its logical conclusion: a president that could blend in with the moral and intellectual lowest common denominator in America. Obama has turned back the clock in American politics. The utter failure of the cynical choice of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate only highlights how successful Obama has been in altering the fundamentals of US polity. He is taken seriously as a politician, because he is a serious politician. He’s not pandering to the worst instinct in people, but the best.
The Pakistani elite should be running for cover. The searing reality they need to embrace is that Obama and his entire policy team grew up admiring Nelson Mandela, and Vaclav Havel–not Ronald Reagan, and Augusto Pinochet. They grew up on idealism. If Obama won’t pander to the worst in his own people, why would he pander to the worst that Pakistan has to offer? Who is more likely to elicit a more favourable response in such an administration? The heroic Ali Ahmad Kurd or colonially-spawned landowners that fear Kurd and the lawyers’ movement so deeply? It’s not even a fair fight.
The feudal, corporate and military elite are worried about the possible invasion of Pakistan air and land space by US forces, because it will make them seem powerless and pathetic. Wow. Talk about being out of touch. That train left the station way back when Pakistan started to hand over its citizens to US courts without due process, when drones started to bomb villages, and when the leadership started to beg for money openly and without a hint of remorse. Pakistan’s elite can change parties and positions a hundred times, they can intermarry till the holy cows come home–but they cannot manufacture heroes. Heroes are built on real effort, of the kind that the lawyers had the courage to invest in.
The Pakistani elite are about to face foreclosure, because they will never be popular at the Obama White House. As in the past, low-level western diplomats will continue to fill telegrams with tales of their “influence” with these elite. But the times they are a’changing. Those underlings have no real political leverage, other than cheese and wine. The Pakistani elite come cheap, but Ali Ahmad Kurd and the Pakistani middle class do not. Their political interests are larger than cheese and wine. More importantly, for every telegram out there, there are ten Pakistani blogs. The White House has an Internet connection. The Pakistani elite do not. Predator drones and the Special Forces may or may not invade Pakistani space, but the west’s “engaging with the elite” philosophy is dying with the counting of every early voting ballot in favour of Obama. If he wins, change isn’t just coming to Washington DC, it’s coming to Pakistan.
sounds a little too optimistic to me. Foreign policies are often designed and carried out by career diplomats and bureaucrats and not politicians. I don’t see a huge shift in US policy towards Pakistan.
Tazeen
4 Nov 08 at 9:32 am
Great analysis. I think that this country needs its own Obama(s), social liberals from middle class who can bring change from inside as well.
Awais
4 Nov 08 at 10:21 am
I do not see a major policy shift because ultimately it is the Pentagon-CIA that shall lead the policy. The biggest challenge to Obhama will be to lead USA out of the Military Absolutism. I wonder if that could happen in the short or mid term.
sharafs
4 Nov 08 at 10:36 am
A very interesting analysis. Under Obama and democrats things are unlikely to get easy for the people of Pakistan, may actually turn ‘bad’ in some many ways, but the ‘worse’ change will be for the Pakistani governening elite which actually thrives on ‘incompetence’…therefore this can bring about some sort of change in the status quo.
Humayun Bashir
4 Nov 08 at 1:54 pm
The constant refrain I hear from Pakistanis, namely that the US (and possibly the British) did not provide the right type of assistance to Pakistan, seems to be your opinion too when you say that frivolous friends provided only “hatchets and shovels, and not enough books and candles”. From the very early days, Pakistan laid much emphasis on getting military assistance only from her Western friends. Pakistan gave step-motherly treatment to economy and education. Why do you want to blame somebody else for your failures ? After all, for the US, its own interests come first and how can that be blamed ?
Subramanyam
4 Nov 08 at 3:06 pm
Thanks for a balanced and sane response. More later…off to vote and volunteer.
Bionic Woman
4 Nov 08 at 5:36 pm
Subramanyam,
What you say may make sense to a common person but for someone who has been a very small cog in policy matters, things are not what they appear to be.
I work in the non profit sector and i was viewing a request for proposal from United States Department of Human Rights and Labour for the Northern Areas of Pakistan where they want to a) emancipate and empower women, b)educate them about their intrinsic human and work related rights. Sounds swell, right. But there is a catch.
You cannot open schools in that area, you cannot open hospitals in that area. All you can do is promote democracy (where no political parties exist and government have been operating through appointed political agents) and hold consultations in Hotels in Peshawar and Isalamabad.
End result: US government will have wasted their tax payers money into something that will only benefit consultants without actually bringing about any change. The TORs are designed in Washington and the govt of Pakistan has no say in any such schemes and this is one such example, there are loads of other examples.
Mosharraf,
Sorry for taking over your blog.
Tazeen
4 Nov 08 at 7:12 pm
Not at all. Really useful discussion here. Thanks.
admin
4 Nov 08 at 8:04 pm
brilliantly written, very convincing, great read. i love the way u attribute a ‘moral sense’ to obama, which is in fact all your own
neda
4 Nov 08 at 10:30 pm
A well written articale, which provides in depth analysis of what is happening in Pakistan more than in USA. This articale is not for USA but for Pakistani People so that they can open their eyes and minds; prepare themselves to take Pakistan’s fate and future in thier hands.
Thanks for a good effort.
Amir
5 Nov 08 at 2:56 am
Whenever so called scholars/academics/experts (Raised/Funded by US/West) discuss any evil/wrong in our Muslim societies on Media especially TV, they never try to exactly locate the center of gravity of that issue. Their reasoning, and intended solutions are shallow and mostly in mars/space because they always try to avoid the context and history of the issue.
What is unfolding now in whole Muslim World and especially Pakistan, is somewhat ‘creative chaos’ in almost all walk of life. If you have monopoly over world resources (Oil, Drugs, Technology, Banks, Media etc) , superiority in intelligence and multiple means of buying out loyalties of the readily saleable commodities (Karzai, Yasir Arrafat, Mahmood Abbas, Musharaf, Saudis, Benaizer, Nawaz, Zardari, Local Journalist, Generals, Bureaucrats, Businessmen etc.) like the US/West does, then the fog of chaos is a good way of confusing the enemy and continuing exploitation/deprivation by de-facto colonization even after so called freedom. One of the main reason for Muslim failure during last several decades in almost all fields is the result of well planned disorientation campaign. Multiple channels are used varying from brute force of carpet bombing/armed invasions to dubious soft tool like human rights, media, trade, MNCs, NGOs, globalization, academic dialogue and last of War on terror. However the only objective is to curtail Islam, whip Muslims and thrash them depending upon the situation and environment.
We will take a common day example of the curse of Heroin. As it is normally believed that Herion like Terrorism popped out of blue from Pakistan Tribal Areas/Afghanistan. It is generally believed that simple tribal men and war lords are only responsible for menace of Heroin but never told the link between Afghan War, CIA, Heroin, BCCI and finance for US Stringers made by private MNCs.
Heroin is prepared from morphine (extracted from opium) by boiling it with acetic anhydride, and then using a process that involves hydrochloric acid, strychnine, and caffeine. The most essential chemical for Heroin (i.e. acetic anhydride) is produced only in West, No Muslim country has any plant for producing acetic anhydride. Recently its import to Afghanistan through Karachi Afghan transit route under flag of NATO/US since 9/11 has increased exponentially. MNCs producing all such chemicals are making billions.
Heroin was basically invented by BAYER Pharmaceutical/Agro MNCs. It is also operating in many countries like Pakistan and making Billions. CIA introduced Heroin in South America, Vietnam and Last of all Afghanistan/Pakistan. Hereon and present drug economy is very similar to Colonial era Opium trade of that era.
Similarly all the business families (Mostly present ruling establishment in Indo/Pak/Bangla Desh) are those who acted as middle men for opium export to China. Most of them control II Chundrigar Road, Karachi/Bombay Stock exchange and Power Houses in IndoPak. Those past collaborators/supporters of past colonials and present day ruling elites will always pray anthems of US/West. Any voice or force raising against US/West is curbed with Iron hand, it may be Lawyers Movement or Red Mosques or Tribal Areas or Rag Tag Taliban. Please see the interview of Indian Writer Amitav Gosh on BBC (23 June, 2008) about opium wars of 1830s and 1850s and opium production in Bengal/Bombay by East India Company.
This is not about blaming the US/West for our all problems. Muslims needs to set its own house in order but there is no question that the Heroin in Afghanistan, NWFP and Tribal area were almost nonexistent before CIA operation against Soviet Invasion. Similar terrorism, intolerance, lawlessness in Tribal Area is the direct product of the machinations of the local/international establishment powers that were based in Tribal region even before Afghan-Soviet War in 1970s.
For we Muslims and Pakistani in particular, this is not a time for optimism. It’s better to be cautious now – even paranoid – than sorry later. The events in our society in general and tribal region in particular did not emerge from a void but are a continuation of a dirty game played since colonization and continues unabated, involving critical inside players and their outside allies.
To draw a line in the sand, we should openly declare US/CIA directly responsible for creating/nourishing/sponsoring chaos, terror, lawlessness, drug economy in our regions.
Regards
FM Shah
Interview of Indian Writer Amitav Gosh on BBC (23 June, 2008)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7460682.stm
Chris Alam
Dear Bhai,
You are exactly right that opium was used in our region prior to Afghan-Soviet war but Heroine was non-existent.
Heroin is prepared from morphine (extracted from opium) by boiling it with acetic anhydride, and then using a process that involves hydrochloric acid, strychnine, and caffeine. The most essential chemical for Heroin (i.e. acetic anhydride) is produced only in West.
Whenever we discuss any evil/wrong in our society, we never try to exactly locate the center of gravity of that issue. Our reasoning, and intended solutions are mostly in space because we never try to know/listen the context and history of that issue.
What is unfolding now in Pakistan, is somewhat ‘creative chaos’ in almost all walk of life. If you have monopoly over world resources, superiority in intelligence and multiple means of buying out loyalties of the readily saleable commodities (Musharaf, BB, Zardari, Generals, Bureaucrats, Businessmen etc.) like the US/West does, then the fog of chaos is a good way of confusing the enemy and continuing exploitation/deprivation by de-facto colonization since 1947. One of the main reason for our failure during last several decades in almost all fields is the result of disorientation campaign. Multiple channels are used varying from brute force of carpet bombing/armed invasions to dubious soft tool like human rights, media, MNCs, NGOs, globalization, academic dialogue. However the only objective is to curtail us, whip us and thrash us depending upon the situation and environment.
This is not about blaming the US/West for our all problems. Pakistan needs to set its own house in order but there is no question that the Heroin in Afghanistan, NWFP and Tribal area were almost nonexistent before CIA operation against Soviet Invasion. The Heroin is the direct product of the machinations of the powers that were based in Tribal region for Afghan-Soviet War during 80s.
For we Pakistani, this is not a time for optimism. It’s better to be cautious now – even paranoid – than sorry later. The events in our society in general and tribal region in particular did not emerge from a void but are a continuation of a dirty game played since colonization and continues unabated, involving critical inside players and their outside allies.
To draw a line in the sand, we should openly declare US/CIA directly responsible for creating/nourishing/sponsoring drug economy in our region.
Regards
FM Shah
1396-Mirage House
It is very common to denounce the curse of Heroin, and it is normally believed that heroin popped out of blue from Tribal Areas/Afghanistan. It is generally believed that simple tribal men and war lord are only responsible for menace of Heroin but never told the link between Afghan War, CIA, Heroin, BCCI and finance for US Stringers made by private MNCs.
Please Google about opium wars of 1830s and 1850s and opium production in Bengal/Bombay by East India Company. All the business families (Mostly present ruling establishment in Indo/Pak/Bangla Desh) are those who acted as middle men for opium export to China. Most of them control II Chundrigar Road.
Opium trade was very similar to Hereon.
Heroin was basically invented by BAYER Pharmaceutical/Agro MNCs. It is also operating in Pakistan and making Billions.
Heroin is prepared from morphine by boiling it with acetic anhydride, and then using a process that involved hydrochloric acid, strychnine, and caffeine.
These essential chemicals required for heroin production are produced in West. These are dual purpose chemical, the maximum utilization of these chemical since 1980s is in Afghanistan.
Its import to Afghanistan through Karachi Afghan transit route under flag of NATO/US since 9/11 has increased expotentially. MNCs producing these chemicals are making billions.
CIA introduced Heroin in South America, Vietnam and Last of all Afghanistan/Pakistan.
Plz recall Wahid Murid Movies in late seventies, the stories used to show the menace of Hashis not heroin.
Recall the links of Zia-ul-Haq with various Seths of 1980s with offer whole Pak Debt Payment for allowing one smuggling trip from Pak ports.
Punch Line :
From where the hell Hamyun Akhtar and Ejaz -ul-Haq have inherited vast fortunes.
FM Shah
18 Dec 08 at 10:38 am